Chapter 6 2022 NCAA Tournament
6.1 Data Preparation
When looking at predictions of the model, they seemed to vary depending on the labeling of the teams as Team 1 and Team 2. In order to decrease this variability, I added an additional row per game with the opposite labeling of Team 1 and Team 2. The model can now view the same game result with Team 1 winning and Team 2 winning, hopefully decreasing the volatility due to randomness of labeling the teams. Once this data change was made, the model’s Log Loss for the 2021 tournament decreased to about .59, which would have placed top 50 in that competition.
6.2 Model Rankings
Once running the model with the new data for the 2021-2022 season, predictions could be made for the 2022 tournament. The ranking of the teams based on average probability of winning against any team in the tournament is below. Higher probabilities mean that team is likely to win in more matchups in the tournament.
| Rank | Team | AVGPrediction |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gonzaga | 0.7688933 |
| 2 | Arizona | 0.7685462 |
| 3 | Houston | 0.7241145 |
| 4 | Iowa | 0.7150696 |
| 5 | Baylor | 0.6945261 |
| 6 | Kentucky | 0.6921316 |
| 7 | UCLA | 0.6896294 |
| 8 | Kansas | 0.6596790 |
| 9 | Duke | 0.6566141 |
| 10 | Texas Tech | 0.6532578 |
| 11 | Auburn | 0.6514166 |
| 12 | Villanova | 0.6399042 |
| 13 | Tennessee | 0.6322477 |
| 14 | Texas | 0.6268857 |
| 15 | Murray St | 0.6261029 |
| 16 | LSU | 0.6167269 |
| 17 | Purdue | 0.6156445 |
| 18 | Connecticut | 0.6053684 |
| 19 | Arkansas | 0.5964973 |
| 20 | St Mary’s CA | 0.5952203 |
| 21 | Illinois | 0.5890800 |
| 22 | San Francisco | 0.5853186 |
| 23 | Loyola-Chicago | 0.5681378 |
| 24 | UAB | 0.5487578 |
| 25 | Memphis | 0.5398739 |
| 26 | San Diego St | 0.5382957 |
| 27 | North Carolina | 0.5347638 |
| 28 | Boise St | 0.5295159 |
| 29 | Virginia Tech | 0.5177411 |
| 30 | USC | 0.5105664 |
| 31 | Iowa St | 0.5013822 |
| 32 | Vermont | 0.4999403 |
| 33 | Alabama | 0.4975716 |
| 34 | Ohio St | 0.4969482 |
| 35 | Colorado St | 0.4964146 |
| 36 | Seton Hall | 0.4948429 |
| 37 | Wisconsin | 0.4867273 |
| 38 | Marquette | 0.4831867 |
| 39 | Michigan | 0.4830376 |
| 40 | Michigan St | 0.4755332 |
| 41 | TCU | 0.4648768 |
| 42 | Providence | 0.4629303 |
| 43 | Davidson | 0.4590377 |
| 44 | Notre Dame | 0.4573141 |
| 45 | Chattanooga | 0.4444356 |
| 46 | S Dakota St | 0.4393861 |
| 47 | Wyoming | 0.4391584 |
| 48 | Miami FL | 0.4157946 |
| 49 | Indiana | 0.4087451 |
| 50 | Rutgers | 0.4048843 |
| 51 | New Mexico St | 0.3914793 |
| 52 | Creighton | 0.3880162 |
| 53 | Richmond | 0.3721586 |
| 54 | Georgia St | 0.3687587 |
| 55 | St Peter’s | 0.3583957 |
| 56 | Yale | 0.3570951 |
| 57 | CS Fullerton | 0.3468519 |
| 58 | Longwood | 0.3468082 |
| 59 | Montana St | 0.3295265 |
| 60 | Delaware | 0.3234417 |
| 61 | Jacksonville St | 0.3205380 |
| 62 | Colgate | 0.3154666 |
| 63 | Norfolk St | 0.3126803 |
| 64 | Wright St | 0.3063850 |
| 65 | TX Southern | 0.2941161 |
| 66 | Bryant | 0.2921967 |
| 67 | Akron | 0.2888322 |
| 68 | TAM C. Christi | 0.2845785 |